These comments are in response to a presentation heard by Lewis F. McLain, Jr., President of CityBase.Net, Inc., a self-professed "quant" or actually a proud quant after the label was heaped upon me by others. This writing is meant to be a reflection and not a suggestion to buy or not buy investments. To the extent that the illustration causes you to become interested in the findings, the actions you take should be after you conduct your own due diligence. It is meant to cause you to think, and is the simple transferance of an analysis generated after being influenced by a group of thinkers. Nothing more. Nothing less.
Thanks to Joseph Bazbaz (joseph_bazbaz@sbcglobal.net) the interesting presentation on insider trading at the Dallas Investors Forum (DIF) on June 6, 2009. DIF (http://www.dallasinvestorsforum.com) is a group of investors who have been meeting every 1st, 3rd and 5th Saturday since 1992. DIF is the best kept secret in the DFW area. You simply have to visit to hear the topics to discuss. If you don't carry away something of value 10x the huge cost ($17.00, including a breakfast), then you went to the wrong meeting.
I didn’t think I would find Joseph's words so valuable so quickly. Just within the last hour this evening (June 7) a new blurb popped up on my Tradestation streaming news function that you see on the top line below where SmarTrends was bragging about their homerun on ATVI since March 9, 2009. I then zeroed in on ATVI stories and picked up the enormous selling that has gone on through June 2.
The reason I mention June 2 is that I had looked at www.finviz.com (my recommended site at the meeting) and www.j3sg.com (Joseph’s recommended site) discussed Saturday. I had already spent a couple of hours late Saturday afternoon and had seen how ATVI popped up with very heavy insider selling recently. And that would be before what you see below dated June 3 through June 6.
To prove Joseph’s point: Look at the Tradestation story headlines below. Then look at the insider trading summary from j3sg.com below the headlines. But THEN look at the on four of 11 pages of insider trading details from j3sg.com that follow! Incredible!
End your review by looking at a weekly chart of ATVI. Is this a sucker punch or what? Without the insider selling knowledge, one would be impressed how ATVI has pushed through the 200-bar even before SmarTrend came out with their recommendation. Then how just last week ATVI pushed through the 50-bar mark. But look at how much room it has to go before it reaches the peak of $19.28 before the early 2009 slide. It looks like a runner.
But most recent high-volume days are mostly red, and now the CCI shows being in the overbought zone.
So, what’s the call? Here’s the deal. Look at the buying that took place before and during last year’s run-up. Then look at the selling that took place deep into the tank. But what is missing is that even with the run-up in the past few months, instead of insider buying and getting ready to cash in on rising prices, enormous amount of selling is going on through this very minute. It doesn’t appear that higher prices are the expectations of the insiders.
This is just to support the value of Joseph’s presentation Saturday. I have not done any more analyses than what you see. I have not done any in-depth fundamental analyses. However, just a quick look isn't too impressive.
Recommendation on how to make money on Monday morning: __________________________________. (Fill in the blank).
Looks like a good short or put-option candidate to me based on how I interpret the insider trading action.
-------------------------------------------------------------
From Tradestation:
From www.j3sg.com
From j3sg.com
From Stockcharts.com
